Exploratory Analysis of the Proportion and Price Comparison of Discontinued versus Active Pharmaceutical Products

Abstract

Drug product discontinuation is a growing global concern in pharmaceutical supply chain dynamics. Previous research on drug management at healthcare facilities has largely been confined to internal management aspects, leaving a knowledge gap regarding the characteristics of discontinued products from a macro market data analytics perspective. This study aims to (1) determine the overall proportion of discontinued pharmaceutical products in the market, and (2) analyze price differences between discontinued and active products. A descriptive quantitative design with a data-driven approach was employed, analyzing 253,973 pharmaceutical products from a publicly available database. The analysis involved data preprocessing, descriptive statistics, Shapiro-Wilk normality test, Mann-Whitney comparative test, and group analysis based on dosage form, therapeutic class, manufacturer, and number of active ingredients. Results showed that discontinued products accounted for 3.11% (7,905 products). A statistically significant price difference was found between discontinued and active products (p-value = 0.0005). Group analysis identified that inhalers (20.97%), sprays (9.56%), and respules (9.02%) had the highest discontinuation rates among dosage forms, while diuretics (7.79%) ranked first among therapeutic classes. Substantial variation was observed across manufacturers, with one manufacturer reaching a 100% discontinuation rate. This study concludes that pharmaceutical product discontinuation affects a small but significant proportion of products, with specific price characteristics and product attributes carrying higher risks. These findings provide an empirical foundation for drug security policies and the development of future predictive models.